Do you know how much easier it is to make fantasy predictions with almost no research to back it up? ESPN posted 53 bold predictions with almost zero facts explaining them, and it included the bogus Troy Tulowitzki will remain healthy for a majority of the year fact! It’s total BS and it’s beautiful, unlike the new ESPN format, but maybe I just hate change. I’m going to make a bunch of fantasy baseball predictions with very little facts to back me up and a ton of bias! Some of them might even be underlined instead of bolded!
Matt Harvey is a bust
He’s on an innings limit and if the Met’s aren’t in the playoff hunt I can see him getting shut down earlier than expected. He’s coming back from Tommy John surgery and I know he’s looked excellent in spring training, but spring training doesn’t mean too much. He has to carry the weight of all of New York’s expectations now that the Yankees stink, that’s too much pressure! He’s getting drafted in the 3rd/4th round now, so people are expecting ace numbers, but he hasn’t pitched a real game in more than a year. Also the Mets can’t have nice things.
Joey Votto finishes as a top 5 1B
He was a top 1B before and I like the Reds’ offense this year with Billy Hamilton likely improving, Todd Frazier and Marlon Byrd providing reliable power, and Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips can’t possible play as bad as they did last year. He’ll provide Freddie Freeman like numbers but for a 3 round discount. Bring on those sweet walks baby!
Adam LaRoche leads the White Sox in HRs
All he has to beat is Jose Abreu and he’s moving to a better hitters park. He had a surprisingly great year last year too.
Mike Trout is the only player on his team to hit 20+ HRs
If Pujols gets injured or falls off then Kole Calhoun is the only real threat here.
Christian Yelich is a bust
As much as I like Christian Yelich, I can easily see him falling out of the Top 150. He had a 61% GB ratio! Any hitter that hits 61% ground balls will never hit double digit HRs. His BABIP the past 2 years have been .380 and .356, which seem a little high. If he loses just 25 points on his BABIP and doesn’t develop a power stroke then you’re stuck with a guy with no HRs and shitty average with only ~20 SBs. No thanks.
Gregory Polanco is the most valuable OF for the Pirates by the end of the season
He’ll get more SBs than McCutchen and he has more power than Marte and was arguably better than both in the minors. He’s getting drafted much later than his teammates and should provide much more value than them if he can go 15/30 like I know he can.
Jake Arrieta is a bust
He had a very low 4.5% HR/FB ratio last year and no one is mentioning this! Yeah his FIP was lower than his ERA, but FIP heavily favors pitchers that limit the long ball. That’s almost exclusively what it’s measuring for! Yeah his slider/cutter is a great pitch and it’s elevated him to ace levels and yeah he’s out of that bandbox that is Camden Yards, but Wrigley isn’t a pitchers park either, the NL Central is the strongest in the NL, and he’s never pitched a full season ever. I think Jason Hammel could finish the year better than him.
No one on the Dodgers hits 20+ HRs
It’s an old lineup and Adrian Gonzalez, Joc Pederson, and Yasiel Puig are the only real threats here. Adrian is too old, Joc is too young, and Puig hasn’t done it yet.
No one on the Giants hits over 15+ HRs
Have you seen that lineup? Hunter Pence has a broken arm, Buster Posey hasn’t hit over 15 HRs in an odd year ever, and Brandon Belt has hit above 15 HRs once.
Jake Peavey finishes the year as the best pitcher on the Giants
He really only has to beat Bumgarner here.
3 pitchers on the Dodgers finish with over 185 Ks and one of them isn’t Zach Grienke
Brandon McCarthy breakout is legit and maybe they trade for an elite pitcher during the trade deadline when they realize 3/5s of their staff can’t remain healthy.
Ike Davis hits 30 HRs again
Billy Beane magic!
Evan Longoria doesn’t finish in the top 12 among 3B
That Rays lineup is pretty terrible and he seems to get worse every year, but I always pick him anyway.
Adam Wainwright pitches great again this year
I don’t think I’ve seen anything positive about him from any expert, but despite losing velocity on his average fastball he still has Yadier Molina, a nasty curveball, and Cardinal magic.
The Brewers win one of the wildcard spots
They have a pretty strong lineup and their pitching has a bunch of breakout guys in Mike Fiers and Jimmy Nelson. They almost did it last year before blowing up.
Michael Brantley finishes in the top 10 overall again
No one believes in this dude and his breakout wasn’t a fluke as he’s made cumulative improvements across the board. Everyone is screaming regression, but I don’t think it’s crazy to scream he’s legit either. Players that do everything well are boring and he’s on the Indians, that’s why he’s getting underestimated.
Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco finish with ERAs above 5…
They just aren’t that good.
Phil Hughes will pitch better than he did last year
Well at least fantasy-wise. He has another year to get adjusted to his new spacious ballpark and he doesn’t need to break a new K/BB record to improve on last year’s unlucky BABIP, he had a great 2.65 FIP last year. The Twins defense was pretty bad last year and should improve this year.
Cole Hamels stays on the Phillies
Ruben Amaro Jr. is insane and no one wants to trade with him.
Nelson Cruz hits under 20 HRs
Seattle kills power and last year was the first time he’s played a full season in forever. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit under 15 HRs.
Chris Tillman gets double digit wins, under 3.75 ERA, and above 150 Ks
But still no one drafts him in the top 200…he only does this every year.
Ubaldo Jiminez actually has a pretty decent year
If he can just stop walking every batter he sees, he still has a nasty arsenal to not be the worst signing since Barry Zito.
Dee Gordon actually does pretty well as a Marlin
I don’t think I’ve seen one expert write something positive about him this year, but he’s batting lead off for a decently strong Marlins team. He had 64 SBs last year as a middle infielder, that’s more than Billy Hamilton had. Yes he had a disappointing second half, but maybe that’s because his first full season drained him. Maybe his first half numbers, where he had 43 SBs and a .292/.344/.398 slashline, can be repeated this year. If he performs more like his Pre-All Star break then you’re basically getting a player like Jose Altuve, a consensus 2nd rounder, except less power and more speed. He had a lower GB% than Yelich last year!
Wil Myers finishes as the most valuable outfielder in San Diego
He’s just too talented to be done this quickly and I can see Kemp and Upton having poor years.
Tyson Ross is a bust
He hasn’t thrown a full season ever and he only has 2 pitches! One of them is a slider which he threw 41% of the time and slider reliance destroys arms.
Max Scherzer reaches 300 Ks
The NL East is that weak and he’s on the only good team.
Rafael Soriano gets resigned by the Nationals
They keep losing bullpen depth and he’s still a free agent and he has pitched for them before.
Marcel Ozuna hits more HRs than Giancarlo Stanton
Stanton only hit 24 HRs in 2013 and Ozuna hit 23 HRs last year.
A Padre pitchers throws a no hitter against the Giants while Tim Lincecum is pitching.
For that sweet sweet irony. I’d put my money on Ian Kennedy.
Yasmani Thomas gets 25+ HRs
His defense is shaky, but his bat grades to be pretty decent and he will get playing time.
Everyone on the Red Sox has a disappointing year
Their entire pitching staff looks mediocre, their bullpen looks old, their free agent signings don’t pan out, Big Papi and Dustin Pedroia look really old, and their super rookies don’t live up to the hype. Mookie Betts with any other name wouldn’t be this hyped, Steve Betts, yuck. EVERYONE disappoints on the Sox! I mean it pretty much happened last year, and we all know how great they are at handing out free agent contracts cough Carl Crawford.
Jonathan Schoop finishes as a top 5 2B
Just trust me on this one.
Mark Trumbo hits 30+ HRs
But still hits below .250. I mean it’s pretty much what he averaged on the Angels from 2012-2013.
Alex Wood finishes as the only good pitcher on the Braves to win double digit games
The Braves look terrible, that’s my only reasoning.
The Cincinnati Reds finish 1st in the NL Central
If everyone stays healthy they have the star power and if they can pull a Alfredo Simon out of their asses again, they can easily do it.
George Springer doesn’t get more than 25 HRs despite playing most of the year
He also gets less than 10 SBs. He had a 33% K rate last year! That’s terrible!
Justin Morneau is a top 10 1B
He looked a lot like the old Morneau last year, his concussion symptoms finally seem to be behind him, and if Michael Cudddyer could win the batting title in Colorado then Morneau can do the same. He’s batting 5th in a dangerous when healthy Coors lineup and finished 13th last year.
Rougned Odor finishes as a top 10 2B
He turned 21 earlier this year and played decently well last year. 15/10 with solid counting stats may be all he needs to sneak into the top 10 and I like the Rangers offense a lot this year.
Wilmer Flores finishes as a top 10 SS
He had a great bat in the minors and the fact that most Met fans whined all off-season for a better SS can only mean he does well. Plus it’s not exactly tough to finish as a top SS.
JD Martinez ends the year as the best hitter on the Tigers
The changes he made to his swing are legit and it goes down as one of the worst mistakes the Astros have ever done.
Mashiro Tanaka doesn’t start more than 2 games
He has a partial tear in his UCL and didn’t get surgery because…the Yankees are cheap? I don’t know, but I can’t think of any pitcher that has had a torn UCL and gone on to pitch a great and healthy season. His spring training outings have shown his velocity is down, he’s not worth the risk.
Ian Desmond doesn’t go 20/20 for the first time in 4 years
I’ve seen too many people say he’s a safe bet for 20/20, but National hitters are dropping like flies and he didn’t impress me last year. His K rate increased by 6% and I’m not sure how he only had 73 runs and 91 rbis in that Nationals lineup last year.
Shane Greene is the best pitcher on the Tigers
Dombrowski magic is at it again! It took going to Detroit for Max Scherzer to truly break out and Greene could follow a similar breakout. He induces a ton of ground balls and the Tigers are getting strong defensive SS Jose Iglesiass back. He’s certainly better than Derek Jeter. His K rate was never as good in the minors, but if he can maintain his 9.27 K/9 from last year then his K rate will remain elite. His HR/FB% ratio at 12.7% was a tad high and should fall down now that he’s not in Yankee stadium. I don’t really believe in David Price or Anibal Sanchez and Verlander is already on the DL.
Kyle Seager is a bust
I think 25 HRs is his ceiling, he’ll get closer to 20 HRs this year and his batting average will always be below average. I just don’t like that Seattle offense.
Ryan Braun is the worst OF on the Brewers
I think I made this bold prediction last year and I’m going to roll with it again.
The Seattle Mariner pitching staff finishes as the best in the AL
I like Paxton and Walker so their top 4 is pretty strong. This isn’t even bold.
Alex Rios finishes in the Top 50 overall
He may steal again on the Royals and every year I don’t own him he does well. I don’t own him this year.
All the Blue Jay pitchers improve
Really bold I know, but Russel Martin has to make some positive difference right? But then their most promising pitcher has to go and tear his ACL and be out for the year! Why can’t Canada have a good team for once, Oh Canada!
There you have it, my baseless baseball predictions. Half of these aren’t baseless and even more of these aren’t bold. Baseball season is around the corner and I couldn’t be more excited for it.