So the first month of baseball is technically over, but because the season started so late the first month hasn’t really finished yet. I looked into some players off to great starts to the season and I used fangraphs for all the stats mentioned in my post.
Nelson Cruz – Well it’s official, I was dead wrong on Cruz. Seattle is where hitters go to die! Cano couldn’t even get to 15 HRs last year and Cruz moving from the hitter friendly Camden Yards to Safeco was supposed to reduce his power, not increase it! He’s hitting fly balls 14% more than last year and his ground ball rate is down by 8%, so the spike in HRs makes sense. Those rates usually don’t stabilize until ~170 PAs and he’s only half way to that mark. His HR/FB is high, but if he can keep generating this many FBs then he might even eclipse last years 40 HRs…he only needs 30 more to go. His walk and strikeout rates look right around career average and he’s swinging a little less outside the strike zone while increasing his contact rate. His age, injury history, and home park gave me concern going into the season, but the stats show there’s little to dislike.
What a great start for Justin Morneau, good thing I recommended him as much as I could on this website that nobody reads! I’ll give myself a pat on the back for that one. Todd Helton was able to play 1B for the Rockies for 40 years, Morneau should be able to do it too. Also those two studs on the left look like twins…too soon?
I’m really glad I held on to Rajai Davis in all my leagues I drafted him in and didn’t drop him for let’s say either Matt Lindstrom or Jose Valverde because I needed saves. I couldn’t have been that stupid right? Right?!
Elvis Andrus has 9 SBs already, he’s so fast because of all those peanut butter and marshmallow sandwiches he eats. The King and the Prince are roaming around the Texas infield.
Chris Colabell-who? Somehow he has 27 rbis playing for the Twins and I’ve never heard of him before this year. Somehow the Twins have one of the best offenses in baseball, if only they had just one major league level pitcher…
Cliff Lee is old, he’s turning 36 this season, and the Rangers collapse is just the tip of the iceberg. Remember Roy Halladay? He was an old Phillies pitcher too. What age did Roy Halladay fall off the map you ask? 36. Last year Cliff Lee had above a 6 ERA in July, he was lucky to have under a 3 ERA that year. Trade Cliff Lee while his name still has some value.
Billy Hamilton had 4 Ks in 4 at bats. Did I mention he had no stolen bases?! If he can’t get on base, then he can’t steal, meaning he’ll have no value. I knew Billy Hamilton was going to be a bust and yesterday just cements it.
Mark Trumbo already has 6 RBIs and is primed to finish the season with like 100 times that. He switched from a pitchers ballpark to a hitters paradise, so of course his power was going to skyrocket. 150 RBIs and 50+ HRs is not out of the question. I would trade Cliff Lee for Mark Trumbo in a heartbeat.
After reading this Yahoo! Fantasy Sports Article on the Reds, I was surprised to read that the respectable Andy Behrens endorsed aggressively bidding on rookie speedster Billy Hamilton in Rounds 4-6. Which is insane. Yes he has the most stolen bases in the minor leagues at 155, but this is a guy who only had 22 at bats last season…but OMG he had 13 stolen bases! That’s 295 stolen bases if he got 500 at bats! If an early pick is all it takes to lock up stolen bases, then I got to have him on my team!